The rest of the country
No free feed of national vote counts exists, so this part runs on prediction markets, which react to counts within minutes. A price of 97¢ means traders will pay 97 cents for a dollar if it happens, which is to say 97%. When a market resolves, the race is marked called.
A market price is a probability with someone's rent behind it.
How sure is everyone? every race, sorted by how settled it is
Senate math 51 seats for a majority; the vice president is a Republican
Show the math
The arithmetic assumes 35 independent coin flips. The markets assume weather.
Each square is a state; shaded ones have a Senate race this year. Blue leans Democratic, red Republican, and the denser the hatching, the surer the market.
House math 218 seats for a majority
Show the math
Senate races closest first
The close ones, explained.
The other ones
Washington's House seats yours is the 7th
Pedantry is a renewable resource.
Wisconsin where the author is from, and where Mom, Dad and the kids are reading this
Every Wisconsin question has the same answer.
The Vice: meteorologist, former vice skip of a Madison curling team, giver of an annual talk on the Edmund Fitzgerald. A fictional character.
Every team meeting is eventually about the Fitzgerald.
Governors closest first
The other ones
Every House district 431 of them, by state, each with a remark
How the forecast works three knobs, one bell curve
The leader is ahead by some number of votes. Some ballots are still in the mail, in a drop box, or in a stack on a table in Renton. The trailing candidate wins if they take enough of those remaining ballots to close the gap. So each forecast asks one question: how much of what's left does the trailer need, and how much are they likely to get?
King County's own estimate, when it posts one; otherwise a guess.
Seattle's later ballots have recently skewed younger and more progressive. Set it to zero if you'd like to be surprised, or below zero if you'd like to be sad.
One standard deviation, in points of the remaining vote. Bigger means less sure. Nobody is ever as sure as their spreadsheet.
The shaded part is hope, quantified.